Moonshot 02
Public Lands  ·  Outdoor Innovation  ·  Rural Economy
February 2026  ·  Draft 0.5

Sierra County
State Recreation Area

A Visionary Rural Outdoor Economic Development Plan  ·  Sierra County, New Mexico

A proposal to unify 63,000 acres of New Mexico's most underutilized outdoor assets into a single destination economy — projected to generate $140–200 million annually, create 950 direct jobs, and transform Sierra County into the next great American outdoor recreation destination.

By Mike Isaacs  ·  Founder/CEO, Tymmber Outdoor  ·  Sierra County, NM  ·  [email protected]  ·  ← Back to Moonshots
The Opportunity at a Glance

What Sierra County Has.
What It's Missing.

63K
Acres unified under SRA designation
$140M+
Projected annual economic impact
950
Direct jobs at maturity
6:1
Projected ROI on Phase 1 investment
249K
Current combined annual visitors
3.1M
Annual visitors at Glen Canyon NRA
$37–53M
Cumulative 10-year tax revenue
27%
Sierra County poverty rate — the urgency

Sierra County has the terrain, the water, the sky, the silence, and the wildlife that people will pay premium prices to experience. Elephant Butte Lake — the largest body of water in New Mexico — sits in a 750-mile drive radius of Albuquerque, El Paso, Phoenix, Tucson, Las Vegas, and Denver. Despite these assets, current annual visitation of 249,743 across both state parks represents a fraction of what comparable destinations achieve. Glen Canyon National Recreation Area draws 3.1 million visitors annually — more than twelve times as many — from similar geography.

The gap is not terrain. It is management architecture, infrastructure investment, and destination marketing. This proposal addresses all three by creating a new state-level designation — the Sierra County State Recreation Area — that unlocks the management flexibility needed to attract private capital while maintaining 100% New Mexico State Parks Division authority. No federal involvement. No loss of state sovereignty.

Section 01  ·  The Foundation
01

A New State Designation.
100% New Mexico Control.

The proposal centers on establishing a new "State Recreation Area" designation within New Mexico's state park system. This is not a renaming — it is a legislative framework change that provides enhanced management flexibility while keeping full authority with the New Mexico State Parks Division.

The key distinction from a federal National Recreation Area: this keeps 100% management authority with New Mexico. Federal NRAs transfer control to federal agencies, imposing restrictions that make commercial development and public-private partnerships significantly harder to execute. The SRA designation is designed to facilitate exactly those partnerships — the ones that bring private capital in to build what public budgets cannot.

  • Remains fully under New Mexico State Parks Division authority
  • Enhanced management flexibility vs. standard state parks
  • Allows for broader economic development and outdoor recreation integration
  • Creates a framework for regional-scale outdoor recreation planning
  • Formally integrates the Sierra Gateway Alliance — Truth or Consequences, Elephant Butte, and Williamsburg — as strategic stakeholders

"We want New Mexico control, not federal bureaucracy. This keeps 100% management with our State Parks Division."

— Committee Talking Points, Sierra County SRA Act
Section 02  ·  The Innovation
02

Turning Water Level
Fluctuation Into an Asset.

The conventional view of Elephant Butte's fluctuating water levels treats them as a liability — a problem to be managed. The SRA proposal inverts this entirely. Fluctuating water levels create dynamic terrain: exposed islands, shallow-water beaches, and unique lakeside topography that a reservoir at consistent full-pool never produces.

The "Island Season" concept proposes 30–60 day seasonal tourism opportunities created through strategic dredging and terrain shaping around Rattlesnake Island, Little Lake Island, and Little Rattlesnake Island. When water levels drop, these islands emerge as premium isolated experience zones — accessible by boat, home to Solar Hut accommodations installed on helical piers that can be relocated as water levels change.

Simultaneously, the "New Mexico Beach Life" concept grooms exposed lake areas for family-friendly beach access — a category New Mexico has never effectively marketed despite having the water and terrain to support it.

  • Island accommodations on helical piers — can be installed, removed, and relocated seasonally
  • Romantic getaway and corporate wellness hosting on premium island sites
  • Adaptive infrastructure that generates revenue regardless of water level
  • "New Mexico Beach Life" brand positioning for day-use recreation
Section 03  ·  The Infrastructure
03

A World-Class Trail System.
The Bentonville Lesson.

The trail system is the single highest-ROI infrastructure investment in the proposal — and the Bentonville, Arkansas precedent makes the case definitively. The Walton family invested $74–75 million in trail infrastructure in Northwest Arkansas between 2008 and 2018. The result was a $137 million annual economic impact from cycling infrastructure alone, 500+ miles of single-track trails, and a community that rebranded itself the mountain bike capital of the world. Arkansas outdoor recreation now contributes $7.3 billion to state GDP annually.

The Sierra County SRA proposes a 100-mile multi-user trail system modeled on the dual-model approach of Colorado's shared-use networks and Moab's dedicated ORV systems. Phase 1 trail development investment is estimated at $7.5 million — against a projected annual economic return of $45 million from trail users alone.

100mi
Multi-user trail system proposed
$45M
Projected annual return from trails alone
275–350
Direct and indirect jobs from trail system
$7.5M
Phase 1 trail investment estimate

Trail users spend $83 per day (day users) to $193 per day (overnight visitors) — and trail systems increase average length of stay by 1.8 nights. A dedicated Vehicular Recreation Area of 5,000+ acres modeled on Moab's approach adds a dedicated ORV use case that draws a different — and high-spending — demographic segment.

"What began as a recreational trail now functions as a transportation route as well as economic and civic infrastructure."

— Congress for the New Urbanism, on the Razorback Greenway, Bentonville, Arkansas
Section 04  ·  The Vision
04

Business Creation.
The Moab Model.

The economic development vision for Sierra County draws explicitly from the Moab, Utah transformation — a rural community that leveraged public land access and trail infrastructure investment into a thriving outdoor recreation economy. The SRA proposal envisions the creation of 35–50 new businesses in the initial 1–3 years, scaling to 125–150 total new businesses within 10 years.

Key development anchors include the Long Point Village — envisioned as a product innovation and demonstration center for outdoor equipment manufacturers and corporate retreats — and the North Monticello Amphitheater, which transforms an abandoned campground into a 5,000-person capacity premier outdoor performance venue.

  • Long Point Village: product innovation center, corporate wellness, EV-first hospitality
  • North Monticello Amphitheater: 5,000-capacity outdoor venue from abandoned campground
  • Business incubation program: recreation-related business formation and growth support
  • Unified SRA brand identity: established early in development to anchor marketing
  • Commercial development zones: strategically positioned to route spending to local businesses

Target market segments include Health and Wellness ($1.5 trillion global market), Outdoor Adventure Tourism ($100+ billion), Traditional Camping ($20 billion), and the emerging "Everyday Outdoor" category — the $5.6 trillion global marketplace blending recreation, work, wellness, and everyday life.

Section 05  ·  The Investment Case
05

Financial Projections.
A 6:1 Return.

The SRA proposal presents a phased investment model with a Phase 1 capital request of $8.5 million — projected to return a 6:1 ROI as the destination reaches maturity. Total capital investment for full SRA development is estimated at $43–55 million across all phases.

$8.5M
Phase 1 capital request (FY26/27)
$150–200M
Projected annual economic return at maturity (Years 8–10)
$11M+
Annual tax revenue by Year 10
$37–53M
Cumulative 10-year tax revenue projection
$43–55M
Total capital investment estimate across all phases
$5–7M
Operations and maintenance endowment proposed

The revenue base is deliberately diversified across lodgers tax, gross receipts tax, property tax, event fees, permit revenues, and concession agreements — reducing dependence on any single source and building resilience against seasonal and water level fluctuations. Funding opportunities identified include the Economic Development Administration, USDA Rural Development, New Mexico Outdoor Recreation Division, and corporate partnership structures.

The Opportunity Gap

Dimension Sierra County (Current) Sierra County SRA (Target) Glen Canyon NRA (Benchmark)
Annual Visitors 249,743 1M+ (Phase 3) 3.1 million
Management Standard State Parks SRA — enhanced flexibility Federal NPS — restricted
Commercial Dev Limited Full public-private model Federally constrained
Water Level Liability Island Season asset Significant drought impact
Trail System Minimal 100-mile world-class system Limited — federally managed
State Control Full Full — no change None — federal only
Section 06  ·  Proof of Concept
06

It Has Been Done.
Here Is the Evidence.

The Sierra County SRA concept is not speculative. Every major element of this proposal has been proven by another community that started with comparable assets and the will to build on them. The comparables below are the documented proof of concept.

Trail Infrastructure · Northwest Arkansas
Bentonville, Arkansas & the Walton Trail System
Beginning in 2007 with five miles of trail, the Walton Family Foundation invested $74–75 million in mountain bike trail infrastructure in Bentonville and surrounding cities over a decade. The result transformed a Walmart company town into the self-proclaimed mountain bike capital of the world — drawing visitors from across North America and internationally. The trails became an economic development tool, a talent attraction mechanism, and a regional identity. Communities from Tennessee to Virginia began sending delegations to Bentonville to study the model.
$137M
Annual economic impact from cycling infrastructure
500+
Miles of single-track trails built
$7.3B
Arkansas outdoor recreation GDP contribution (2023)
68K
Jobs supported statewide by outdoor recreation
Water-Based Destination Economy · Arizona
Lake Havasu City & the Planned Recreation Economy
In 1964, Robert McCulloch purchased 26 square miles of western Arizona desert at $73.47 per acre. He built a planned community with outdoor recreation as its foundational economic model — 40% resort and recreation by design. He purchased the London Bridge from London in 1968 and rebuilt it stone by stone on the Arizona shore. The resulting destination economy now draws hundreds of thousands of visitors annually. Lake Havasu City operates 1,800 miles of off-road trails, hosts major boat racing events, hot air balloon festivals, and classic car shows — turning an Arizona reservoir into a year-round destination. The lesson for Sierra County: the terrain was always there. The intentionality was the differentiator.
1,800mi
Off-road trails serving the destination economy
40%
Resort and recreation — planned economic foundation
$73/acre
Original land cost — the return on vision is incalculable
State Policy Model · Arkansas
Arkansas Natural State Initiative & the Office of Outdoor Recreation
In her first week in office in 2023, Governor Sarah Sanders launched the Natural State Initiative, appointing a dedicated Natural State Advisory Council and creating the first Office of Outdoor Recreation in the region. The state invested in trail development, water access projects, and workforce training — including a trail technician program at Northwest Arkansas Community College. In 2025, Arkansas released its Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plan (SCORP). New Mexico has its own SCORP — the 2022–2026 plan — and this proposal is explicitly designed to align with its stated priorities.
33%
Growth in Arkansas outdoor recreation GDP from 2019–2023
8%
Share of all Arkansas state tax revenue from outdoor recreation
#4
Arkansas nationally for outdoor product manufacturing GDP share
Trail-Oriented Development
Moab, Utah & the ORV Destination Economy
Moab transformed from a struggling uranium mining town into one of the most recognized outdoor recreation destinations in the world — driven by strategic investment in trail infrastructure, a coherent destination brand, and a management framework that welcomed rather than restricted multi-use recreation. The Slickrock Trail, the Whole Enchilada, and the expanding network of off-road vehicle routes turned the surrounding federal lands into an economic engine that supports a small-town economy year-round. Trail users in Moab spend an average of $193 per overnight visit and increase average length of stay significantly. The SRA proposal's dedicated 5,000+ acre Vehicular Recreation Area is modeled directly on the Moab approach.
$193
Average overnight visitor daily spend in ORV trail destinations
1.8 nights
Increase in average length of stay from trail systems
125–150
Projected new businesses in Sierra County at 10 years (Moab model)
Source: SRA Proposal — Moab, Utah analysis (Section 3, Trail Development)
Section 07  ·  The Geography
07

61,440 Acres.
96 Square Miles.

The proposed SRA boundaries consolidate Elephant Butte Lake and Caballo Lake State Parks under a unified management designation, extending the boundary approximately 3 miles north of Monticello North Campground and 3 miles south of Caballo Lake — straddling the I-25 Interstate corridor to the west and the mountain range base to the east.

The boundary proposal encompasses approximately 61,440 acres (96 square miles) at full extent. Implementation follows a three-phase boundary approach — establishing core boundaries first, then expanding as management infrastructure and partnerships develop. Existing State Park boundaries, BLM land, and private land considerations will require formal land exchange and cooperative agreement negotiations as part of the legislative process.

  • Phase 1: Core state park lands — existing Elephant Butte and Caballo Lake boundaries
  • Phase 2: Extended corridor — north and south buffer zones, I-25 frontage
  • Phase 3: Full 61,440-acre extent — cooperative agreements with BLM and private landowners

Resource Protection Zones and Development Zones are established within the boundary framework from the beginning — wildlife corridors, terrain-aware infrastructure requirements, and restoration zones are design features, not afterthoughts.

Section 08  ·  The Edge
08

Markets Nobody Else
Is Chasing Here Yet.

Three emerging market opportunities give the Sierra County SRA competitive positioning that no existing New Mexico destination currently holds.

Nocturism. Sierra County's distance from urban light pollution makes it one of the darkest sky locations in the American Southwest. The night sky tourism market generates $5.8 billion annually in the United States alone — driven by travelers willing to pay premium rates for accessible, premium dark sky experiences. The SRA's elevation, terrain, and low ambient light create a natural advantage that requires no construction to capture — only positioning and programming.

EV Mobility and Outdoor Access. The Carbon Free Resort concept — detailed in Moonshot 03 — is an EV-first infrastructure model. The SRA's proximity to the I-25 corridor makes it a natural anchor for the EV charging network that connects Albuquerque to El Paso. As EV adoption accelerates, recreation destinations with robust charging infrastructure will capture disproportionate market share from the growing segment of EV drivers seeking off-grid outdoor experiences within their range envelope.

The Everyday Outdoor Market. The $5.6 trillion global marketplace that blends recreation, remote work, wellness, and everyday life is the fastest-growing segment of the outdoor economy. Long-term stay infrastructure — the Solar Hut platform, co-working facilities, reliable connectivity — positions Sierra County SRA to capture the growing demographic of remote workers who want to live within a recreational environment, not just visit it occasionally.

Section 09  ·  Strategic Alignment
09

The Río Grande Trail
Runs Through Us.

The Río Grande River is not adjacent to the Sierra County SRA. It is the reason the SRA exists — the Rio Grande feeds, fills, and defines both Elephant Butte and Caballo lakes. This means the Sierra County SRA sits in the geographic heart of one of the most significant outdoor infrastructure projects in New Mexico history: the Río Grande Trail.

The Río Grande Trail is a state-legislatively-authorized project to create a continuous 500-mile multi-use trail for hiking, biking, and horseback riding along the full length of the Rio Grande from the Colorado border to Texas. Governed by the Río Grande Trail Commission — an entity empowered by the New Mexico State Legislature and supported by EMNRD, the same department this proposal engages — the trail currently has 90 miles developed and open for public use, with active implementation underway on new segments daily.

The alignment opportunity is direct and immediate. A Sierra County SRA that formally integrates with the Río Grande Trail framework would become one of the most significant nodes on the entire 500-mile corridor — offering water access, island experiences, overnight accommodations, trail connectivity, and a destination economy that no other point along the trail can match. This is not an add-on to the SRA vision. It is a natural extension that makes both projects stronger.

"The Río Grande is the central artery of New Mexico, spanning nearly 500 miles between the Colorado and Texas state borders. For more than a thousand years, the river has brought together cultures, societies, ecosystems, and economies."

— Río Grande Trail New Mexico, riograndetrailnm.org
The Three Organizations
The Trail Organization
Río Grande Trail NM
The primary trail organization — managing the vision, implementation, and community engagement for the 500-mile corridor. The trail is only possible through local-level collaboration. Sierra County is a natural partner.
riograndetrailnm.org →
The State Commission
Río Grande Trail Commission  ·  EMNRD
The state-legislatively-empowered body that governs the RGT — defining trail alignment, approving designations including Gateway Community status, and overseeing policy. Reports through EMNRD, the same department the SRA Act engages.
emnrd.nm.gov →
The Outdoor Recreation Division
NM Outdoor Recreation Division  ·  nmoutside.com
ORD supports trail planning, awards funding through the Outdoor Recreation Trails+ Grant program, and engages communities to align trail development with regional priorities. The Trails+ Grant is a direct funding pathway for SRA trail infrastructure.
nmoutside.com →

Three Specific Opportunities This Alignment Creates

  • Gateway Community Designation. The RGT Commission designates official Gateway Communities along the 500-mile corridor. Sierra County — with two lakes, overnight accommodation infrastructure, and a developing trail network — is a natural candidate. Gateway status brings corridor marketing, state recognition, and access to grant programs specifically targeted at RGT nodes.
  • Trails+ Grant Funding. The NM Outdoor Recreation Division's Trails+ Grant program funds trail segments that contribute toward completion of the Rio Grande Trail. The SRA's proposed 100-mile multi-user trail system — designed to connect Elephant Butte and Caballo — could qualify directly for this funding stream, significantly reducing the Phase 1 capital requirement.
  • EMNRD Legislative Alignment. The SRA Act is asking EMNRD for support. EMNRD already houses the Río Grande Trail Commission. This means the SRA proposal is not a cold ask to a neutral agency — it is a natural extension of infrastructure EMNRD is actively building. The Sierra County SRA becomes the most significant lake-and-water node in EMNRD's existing trail development portfolio.
Section 10  ·  Heritage Tourism
10

The Rio Grande Dam.
A Signature Trailhead.

The Elephant Butte Dam is one of the most significant historic engineering achievements in New Mexico's history — completed in 1916, it was the world's largest dam at the time of construction. The dam site and its surrounding historic structures currently function as a bypass on the visitor journey rather than a destination. The proposal envisions its transformation into the primary gateway and signature trailhead of the SRA.

The Rio Grande Dam Historic District addendum proposes revitalizing historic structures for accommodations, educational programming, and events — creating a heritage tourism anchor that draws the cultural tourism demographic alongside the outdoor recreation visitor. The historic district becomes the place visitors understand why this reservoir exists, deepening the experience beyond recreation into genuine engagement with New Mexico's water history and engineering heritage.

  • Signature trailhead: central gateway to the full SRA trail network
  • Adaptive reuse of historic structures for lodging and event programming
  • Educational programming on water history, engineering, and conservation
  • Projected direct revenue and job creation from the restored historic district
Section 11 & 12  ·  Year-Round Activation
11

Signature Events.
The Butte Outdoor Adventure Expo.

A destination economy requires year-round activation — events that give visitors a reason to come on a specific date, create social media amplification, and build a community identity around the place. The SRA proposal identifies a suite of signature events drawing from proven models: a Mammoth Lakes Film Festival–style outdoor film event, a Pismo Beach–style sand race weekend, and a Texas-style BBQ cookoff as anchors across different seasons and demographics.

The Butte Outdoor Adventure Expo is the flagship event concept — an annual three-day outdoor industry event modeled on expanding Canoecopia (the world's largest paddle sports show) across all outdoor activity categories. The Expo targets 15,000+ unique visitors over three days, 300+ exhibitors across six themed pavilions, and 200+ workshops, demonstrations, and presentations. A QR-code–based Expedition Rewards program drives cross-pavilion exploration and captures visitor data for the outdoor ecosystem platform.

  • 15,000+ unique visitors target over three days
  • $4.2 million in projected local economic impact per event
  • 300+ exhibitors, six themed pavilions, outdoor demonstration zones
  • Expedition Rewards: gamified engagement that incentivizes comprehensive exploration
  • Integration with the Outdoor Ecosystem platform for post-event engagement
Supporting Documents

The Full Document Set.

Four documents supporting the Sierra County SRA — the comprehensive proposal, the draft legislation, the director's operational brief, and the committee floor defense. Each stands alone; together they represent a complete legislative and operational package.

Sources  ·  Verify Everything

All numerical claims in this proposal summary are sourced. Comparable data is drawn from primary research and published studies. The Nullius in Verba standard applies — including to our own projections, which are clearly marked as estimates based on comparable models.

The Bentonville / Arkansas Comparables
01
Talk Business & Politics  ·  February 24, 2025
Source for: $7.3B Arkansas outdoor recreation GDP, 68,431 jobs, 33% GDP growth from 2019–2023, 8% of all state tax revenue from outdoor recreation, nation-leading growth in outdoor amenity construction (which includes trail building).
02
Visit Bentonville  ·  InfrastructureUSA Study
Source for: $137 million annual economic benefits from cycling infrastructure in Northwest Arkansas; residents spending $20M+ annually on bicycling; homes within .25 miles of the Razorback Greenway sell for nearly $15,000 more than those two miles away.
03
Arkansas Times  ·  February 25, 2025
Source for: Walton family investment strategy; Tom and Steuart Walton's leadership of the trail development initiative; outdoor recreation contributing more to Arkansas economy than agriculture, forestry and mining combined.
04
Congress for the New Urbanism  ·  February 2026
Source for: the pull quote on trails evolving from recreational infrastructure to transportation and economic infrastructure; the Razorback Greenway's role as the framework for sustainable growth in Northwest Arkansas.
05
Arkansas Department of Parks, Heritage and Tourism  ·  2025
The primary state government source for Arkansas outdoor recreation economic data. Arkansas ranks #4 nationally for outdoor product manufacturing GDP share. The state's SCORP and grant infrastructure for communities pursuing similar development.
The Lake Havasu / Arizona Comparable
06
Arizona Commerce Authority
Source for: Lake Havasu City's founding model (40% resort and recreation by design); 1,800 miles of off-road trails; the London Bridge purchase and relocation; major destination events including boat races, balloon festivals, and car shows.
New Mexico Context & National Benchmarks
07
Recreation Professional  ·  January 2026
Source for: the broader academic case that outdoor recreation infrastructure investment in rural communities produces measurable economic development outcomes; the Bentonville mountain biking case as a documented model of rural transformation.
08
National Park Service  ·  Active
Source for: 3.1 million annual visitors at Glen Canyon (2023) — the benchmark comparison for Sierra County's current 249,743 combined visitors. The 12x visitation gap is the core opportunity framing of this proposal.
09
NM Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department
The state planning document this proposal is explicitly designed to align with. The SRA Act's Director's Brief references the SCORP's stated priorities — fee study modernization, energy innovation, infrastructure readiness — and maps each SRA element to those priorities.
10
Outdoor Industry Association
Source for: $887 billion U.S. outdoor recreation economy figure; 7.6 million jobs; the national market context that frames Sierra County's opportunity within the broader industry.
The Río Grande Trail — Strategic Alignment
12
Río Grande Trail Organization  ·  Active
Source for: the 500-mile trail vision, 90 miles currently developed, the collaborative implementation model, Commission authority over Gateway Community designation, and the quote on the Rio Grande as the central artery of New Mexico.
13
New Mexico EMNRD  ·  Active
Source for: the Commission's state legislative authority; its role defining trail alignment and approving Gateway Community designations; the EMNRD institutional alignment — the same department the SRA Act engages.
14
nmoutside.com  ·  Active
Source for: ORD's role securing funding for the RGT; the Outdoor Recreation Trails+ Grant program as a direct funding pathway for trail segments contributing to the RGT — a potential mechanism for the SRA's proposed 100-mile trail network.
Proposal — Disclosure Note
11
Sierra County SRA Proposal — Draft 0.5  ·  Mike Isaacs, Tymmber Outdoor
February 1, 2026  ·  Draft document — not a final or formally submitted proposal
All financial projections in this proposal (economic impact, tax revenue, job creation, ROI) are estimates based on comparable models in Arkansas, Arizona, and Utah. They have not been independently verified by New Mexico state agencies. They represent a planning framework, not a guarantee. The proposal has been shared informally with New Mexico State personnel. It has not been formally submitted to any state agency and no official response has been received.

Interested in This Project?

We are actively seeking state agency dialogue, legislative champions, outdoor hospitality partners, and conservation organizations ready to help build New Mexico's next great outdoor destination.